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Planning and Development Committee Meeting, October 25, 2010


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Proceedings of the Planning and Development Committee

School District No. 2, Yellowstone County

High School District No. 2, Yellowstone County

Billings, Montana

 

October 25, 2010

 

CALL TO ORDER

 

Chair Kathy Aragon called the meeting to order at 5: 30 p.m. on Monday, October 25, 2010, in the Board Room of the Lincoln Center. Committee members in attendance were Chair Kathy Aragon, Trustee Travis Kemp, Sandra Abraham, Doug Armknecht, Margaret Aukshun, Annette Cabrera, Deana Elder, Amy Griffin, Jodi Schreiber, Josi Wilgus, and Kathy Olson, Elementary Executive Director. Members absent were Krista Hertz, Lance King, and Jennifer Molk.

 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE PUBLIC

 

There was no communication from the public.

 

PRESENTATION OF DAVIS DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

 

Chair Aragon introduced Thomas Harper, School District 2 CFO, Daniela Walsh, Business Analyst, Financial Services Department, and Richard Dews who gave a presentation on the work consulted between School District 2 and Davis Demographics.

 

Thomas Harper and Daniela Walsh passed out a handout on Enrollment Forecasting, Why Demographics Matter, Davis Demographics and Planning Proposal for Enrollment Forecasts and Demographic Master Plan, July 30, 2010 (Revised from June 22, 2010). Mr. Harper explained that Davis Demographics has been working on a demographic study for School District 2. Mr. Harper said demographics are about facilities, but it is more than that, it is about every item in the budget and the budget is driven by students and student relevance. Mr. Harper suggested even more important is birth rate.

 

Daniela Walsh said the main objective Davis Demographics was consulted to do was to develop a “build-out” and an “enrollment projection” study for School District 2. Ms. Walsh said the build-out study will project out 10, 15, to 20 years and the enrollment projection study will project out 7 to 10 years.

 

Richard Dews presented an overview of the Proposed Scope of Work that goes along with the contract with Davis Demographics. Mr. Dews explained a lot of time was spent in negotiating the content of what Davis Demographics would develop according to the scope of work. Mr. Dews explained there are a number of steps to obtain information to develop the build-out, such as information on streets, residential, planned residential developments and the 2007-2010 enrollment numbers information. Mr. Dews said thus far they have produced the data stats for 2007-2010. Mr. Dews noted when producing the build-out information you must compare apples to apples or the same snap shot, look for documents that are missing and document the process of where you get the data, by what process, how to verify that you got the data and that you are comparing year to year, apples to apple or snap shot. Mr. Dews suggested a model planning book would be helpful to reproduce the process for subsequent years and continue to update the software. The next stage is the GEO-Coding which is a process of building a latitude longitude or an XY coordinate on a map to a human record or address. Mr. Dews, Ms. Walsh and Gail Harms will work on 2007 -2008 to learn the process and to flush out the previous documentation to use GEO-Coding inside School District 2. Mr. Dews said the GEO-Coding will be done and submitted to Davis Demographics for conclusion of the next phase which is projected for completion by the middle of November.

 

In December, Davis Demographics will be doing projection modeling which is what their software does. The software is called Davis Demographics and Planning School Site Desktop Planning 9.3.1.

Mr. Dews said they will parallel the modeling projection that Davis Demographics will be doing in the month of mid-November to December. A draft report will be provided for the Planning and Development Committee, the Board and School District 2 executives around the middle to third week of December for review before they finalize the document. The final document will be completed the end of January or the beginning of February.

 

The following questions and answers discussed are included below:

 

Chair Aragon asked how the homeless population, special education bus only, and removed populations will be accounted for.

- Mr. Dews said they are working with Gail Harms and special education. Mr. Dews

Suggested as far as a separate reproducible function he will do some research

and get the information to Chair Aragon.

 

Chair Aragon asked when there is no room for infill housing how will it be accounted for.

- Mr. Dews said there are two modules in the software called, Assessment and Track which

Davis Demographics utilizes to look at future build-out.

 

Chair Aragon asked if they have been working with the City/County Planning Department and if they will take into consideration the changes that have occurred over the last ten years such as the new growth policy and multi-zoning code development changes.

- Mr. Dews stated that has yet to be decided because of variables or student enrollment. The 20 year study will not be able to tell you how the numbers will flush out in the next 20 years.

 

Amy Griffin said it seems like it comes down to a lot of assumptions in the build-outs. Ms. Griffin asked if the study includes older neighborhoods that are being turned.

- Mr. Dews said they are utilizing population counts and movement of population from X to

Y.

 

Chair Aragon asked if there will be a density overlay.

- Mr. Dews said the software program will run projection scenarios and re-districting allows you to consider models of different study area boundaries.

 

Kathy Aragon asked as an example, if the district went to a K-8 school could the program figure out where the kids reside that would fill that school.

- Mr. Dews explained the software is built to run countless models. Mr. Dew noted the study

build-out that Davis Demographics has been contracted to do is one scenario set of a 7-10 year projection and 12 out of one build-out. Mr. Dews hopes School District 2 will hire qualified staff to continue to answer questions in order to continue using information to add in when new development occurs.

 

Amy Griffin asked if the time frame used was from 2007 forward. Kathy Aragon asked why you would not go back if you were looking for turnover rates and how often.

- Mr. Dews said it can be done but there would be significant time required to get this information. Mr. Dews noted that at this time there are quite a number of changes that will be referenced for human population for School District 2. Mr. Dews said one of the things this project is about is documenting an improved process that can be followed moving forward, but yet could be used to look backwards.

 

Kathy Aragon asked if you can go back and use the same assumptions for ANB calculations that are in the software to project enrollment.

- Mr. Dews said they have been doing that, but they have not been chartered to do that task.

Mr. Dews noted that they are trying to develop a planning document as early as possible in

January – February. After that the sky is the limit as to what the software can produce.

 

Amy Griffin said one of the assumptions you can make is that there is existing neighborhoods that will turn over.

- Mr. Dews said the software is capable of being used in ways way beyond what Davis

Demographics use it for.

 

Thomas Harper noted that once the study is done there will still be decisions to be made. Mr. Harper suggested what will drive the forecasting part will be birthrates and mobility factors.

 

Kathy Aragon asked Mr. Harper, Ms. Walsh and Mr. Dews if Davis Demographics has gotten all the information they have asked for.

 

Mr. Dews noted they have gotten the information within in the contracted scope of work, but Davis Demographics is asking for a policy decision on what is the load factor for individual schools. Mr. Dews suggested a policy that will indicate the optimal class size, what is the maximum class size, distance from schools, etc. Mr. Harper noted other issues exist in terms of the budget such as efficiency issues and accreditation standards.

 

Amy Griffin asked when the Board will decide optimal elementary school size and educational relevance. Chair Aragon said the Board will discuss this issue. Thomas Harper suggested that when Davis Demographics completes the document those kinds of discussions can take place, especially when you overlay the financial with the educational factors, the two forces will merge to discuss policy issues.

 

Chair Aragon noted for the 2007 school year the number reported by the school district to the City/County Planning Department was 301 lower than what was reported by the school district to OPI in enrollment for that year. Thomas Harper assured Chair Aragon that what the district was paid for ANB was the correct amount. Mr. Harper said the information they will give Davis Demographics will match up to what the official 2007 enrollment was. Thomas Harper will look into what was given to the city to correct the information for the official number. (page 106 of the most recent update of the City Growth Policy is 301 lower).

 

REVIEW OF FINAL DOCUMENTS

Kathy Aragon thanked Jodi Schreiber for volunteering to help review and compile the final document.

 

Chair Aragon noted that almost everything presented in the Document is the same except for the recommended changes by the Committee and changes made upon review, which include:

 

- Under general population and age distribution, Chair Aragon added additional ratio characteristics to include level of education obtained and population projection as it appears in the updates from the City of Billings Growth Policy under populations.

- Under the Document Housing, Income and Economic conditions, Chair Aragon added the Housing Affordability Gap taken from the document, “City of Billings, Substantial Amendment to the 2008-2009 Consolidated Plan” and that has been added as a work Consulted.

- Chair Aragon noted that the homeless student population in the year 2002 was 100 and now the number is close to 500. Chair Aragon suggested it is important to take into account these students and where they are documented. School District 2’s Homeless Coordinator said homeless students live in hotels near McKinley school and in city shelters. Annette Cabrera said homeless students who live in hotels and in city shelters can be counted in the GEO-Coding. Ms. Cabrera noted students that have PO Box addresses or no address that cannot be counted in the GEO-Coding.

- All data that was available affecting enrollment has been included, also included are school trend enrollment, enrollment from recent boundary changes and bussing data. Chair Aragon explained that the bussing data has not been separated out by Elementary, Middle School and High School and that issue will be a discussion for the Board as District Planning and Development moves forward.

- Chair Aragon noted all the additions that were recommended at the September 13, 2010, Planning and Development meeting have been added.

- Under Land Use Section V, #B, Chair Aragon will include the map on Housing Unit Density per Square Mile.

- Under Land Use Section V, #C, Chair Aragon will include the area map of the entire school district provided by Annette Cabrera. Chair Aragon noted this map will show the square areas that will include the Elementary, Middle School and High Schools.

 

 

Amy Griffin asked if the one percent expected growth rate of Yellowstone County is the total growth rate. Chair Aragon said yes, the information came from the recent City Growth Policy update.

 

Amy Griffin asked if there is a list of sources in the Document. Chair Aragon and Jodi Schneider explained the sources are noted in the table of contents as to where the data can be found for documents that are included in the executive summary.

 

Chair Aragon said the names of the Planning and Development Committee will be added to the third page after the document executive summary as December 2009 – August 2010 Planning and Development Committee members.

 

Sandra Abraham made the following motion with a second by Josi Wilgus.

 

Motion to include changes, to include adding school district area map, approve the document as it is written and executive summary and table of contents as they are written with the changes to work consulted to include Billings Housing Needs Assessment and the addition of the map under Sec V # C.

 

Those voting in favor were Chair Aragon, Trustee Kemp, Sandra Abraham, Doug Armknecht, Margaret Aukshun, Annette Cabrera, Deana Elder, Amy Griffin, Jodi Schreiber, and Josi Wilgus. The motion passed unanimously.

 

Chair Aragon will make the recommended changes and ask the Superintendent to post the document

on the School District 2 web-site for public comment the month of November. Chair Aragon will send the document to planning entities.

 

 

APPROVAL OF THE SEPTEMBER 13, 2010, MINUTES OF THE PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE AND JOINT BOARD MEETING

 

Sandra Abraham made the following motion with a second by Travis Kemp.

 

Motion to approve the September 13, 2010, Planning and Development Committee minutes as presented in the agenda.

 

Those voting in favor were Chair Aragon, Trustee Kemp, Sandra Abraham, Doug Armknecht, Margaret Aukshun, Annette Cabrera, Deana Elder, Amy Griffin, Jodi Schreiber, and Josi Wilgus. The motion passed unanimously.

 

Chair Aragon thanked the Committee members for all their time and effort.

 

 

There being no further business Kathy Aragon adjourned the meeting at 6:30 p.m.

 

 

 

Kathy Aragon, Chair

 

 

Brenda Cross, Recorder

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